A baseline is the starting value for an indicator before or at the beginning of an intervention. A target is the value the program intends to reach by a defined point in time.
UNDP monitoring guidance treats baseline, data source and targets as core parameters in a performance framework and stresses that targets should be realistic and based on current analysis.
Simple example
If 38% of targeted households currently use an improved water source, 38% is the baseline. If the project aims to raise that figure to 65% by the end of year two, 65% is the target.
Why baselines matter
Without a baseline, it is difficult to show the magnitude of change. A donor may know the final number but not whether the program improved the situation meaningfully.
How to set a credible target
- Use the same indicator definition as the baseline.
- Use a compatible data source.
- Consider the project period.
- Consider realistic reach and budget.
- Document assumptions.
- Avoid targets chosen only because they sound impressive.
What if no baseline exists?
Do not invent one. UNDP guidance recognizes that some indicators may not yet have a baseline and that the baseline can be established once an appropriate data system is in place. The proposal should be transparent about when and how that will happen.
Use the Grant Evidence Inventory to identify whether your baseline claims have supporting evidence.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can the baseline be zero?
Yes, for a genuinely new service or indicator, but do not use zero automatically when data is simply missing.
Can targets change after award?
Sometimes, but material changes may require donor approval or a formal performance-framework revision.
Should every indicator have a baseline?
It depends on the indicator and donor framework, but outcome and performance indicators usually need a defensible starting point.
Can we use national data as a baseline?
Only if it is appropriate for the project population and indicator. Geographic or population mismatch can make the baseline misleading.
What makes a target unrealistic?
A target is weak when it ignores the baseline, budget, timeframe, delivery capacity or external constraints.
Conclusion
Baselines show where the project starts; targets show where it intends to go. Strong proposals connect both to the same indicator, evidence source and implementation logic so the promised change can actually be measured.